There have been a lot of articles lately regarding the “future of Flash”, with recent moves by YouTube and Vimeo towards H.264 video, and Apple’s launch of a “flashless” iPad.
This Web Monkey article is the best I’ve read so far, regarding threats and opportunities for Flash:
http://www.webmonkey.com/blog/Why_Flash_Isn_t_Going_Anywhere__iPad_Be_Damned
Flash is now supporting some HTML5 features:
Flash CS5 will export to HTML5 Canvas
http://www.9to5mac.com/Flash-html5-canvas-35409730